A man who likes Tesla cars thinks that they will sell fewer cars in the next three months than people expected. But he also thinks that if they still sell more cars this year than last year, the price of the company's shares might go up anyway. He says this is because people have already been selling the company's shares a lot this year, so the price is now low enough to make it easier for the shares to go up even with fewer car sales. Read from source...

1. The author uses a vague term "muted expectations" without providing any specific numbers or sources to support this claim. This makes the statement unverifiable and potentially misleading for readers who are not familiar with Tesla's Q1 deliveries history.
2. The author cites Future Fund's Gary Black as a fund manager who is bullish on Tesla, but does not disclose any potential conflicts of interest or the extent of his investment in the company. This could create an impression that the article is biased towards a positive outlook on Tesla, without acknowledging other possible perspectives from bearish analysts or investors.
3. The author mentions Troy Teslike's estimate of Q1 deliveries, but does not explain how this number was derived or what factors were considered in the analysis. This could imply that the author is relying on a dubious source or methodology to support his claim that Tesla is facing a potential sales decline.
4. The author contrasts Black's consensus estimate of 431,000 and 443,000 units with Teslike's estimate of 409,000 units, but does not provide any context or comparison to previous quarters' deliveries numbers. This could make readers think that the difference between these estimates is significant, when in fact it may be within the normal range of fluctuations for Tesla's sales performance.
5. The author quotes Black as saying that "the stock would likely rally if first-quarter deliveries rise year-over-year even with a miss relative to the consensus estimate". This statement is circular and contradictory, as it implies that the market reaction depends on whether Tesla beats or misses the consensus estimate, which itself may be influenced by the same deliveries numbers. The author does not question or challenge this assertion, nor does he provide any evidence to support it.
6. The author reports Black's prediction of a weak Q2 due to slow EV adoption, but does not mention any other factors that could affect Tesla's demand or sales in the future, such as new product launches, competitors' strategies, regulatory changes, etc. This could create an impression that Tesla's growth is solely dependent on the overall EV market trends, without acknowledging the company's own strengths and opportunities to expand its customer base and market share.

1. Given the current market conditions, it is likely that Tesla's first-quarter delivery numbers will miss the consensus estimate and show a year-over-year decline in sales for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. This could lead to a narrative change among investors and analysts, who may question the company's growth prospects and profitability.
2. However, despite the expected weak report, Tesla's stock price has already factored in the risk of a delivery miss and is trading at a depressed level. This means that there is potential for a rally if the company manages to deliver more vehicles than the year-ago number or shows improvement in other key metrics, such as gross margins or operating expenses.
3. The recent price cuts, EV credit and Cybertruck's halo effect may help boost demand for Tesla's products in the long run, but their impact on first-quarter deliveries may be limited due to various factors, such as supply chain constraints, production issues or customer preferences.
4. The second quarter is expected to be challenging for Tesla as well, with EV adoption rates likely to remain slow and competition intensifying from other players in the market, such as Rivian (RIVN), Lucid Group (LCID) and Ford Motor (F). This could put further pressure on the company's margins and market share.
5. Therefore, investors who are considering a position in Tesla should be aware of the risks and uncertainties associated with its business model and growth prospects, as well as the potential for short-term volatility in the stock price based on quarterly delivery numbers and other factors. They should also monitor the progress of the company's innovation efforts, such as the development of new products, services or technologies that could enhance its competitive advantage and long-term value.