A man named Arthur Hayes, who is the boss of a company called BitMex, thinks that the price of bitcoin will go down to between $30,000 and $35,000 soon. He says this because he looked at some charts and also because of something happening in March related to banks lending money. Some people are calling him "the new Cramer" because there is another man named Jim Cramer who doesn't like bitcoin very much. But Arthur Hayes believes that bitcoin and other digital money will be the first ones to show changes in how much money people have, if something happens with the US dollar. Read from source...

- Hayes' prediction is based on technical analysis, which he admits is not foolproof and subject to change. He also cites a specific event (the March decision on renewing banks' lending program) as the primary driver for his forecast, implying that it is the only factor influencing Bitcoin's price movement. This ignores other possible factors such as market sentiment, regulation, adoption, competition, etc.
- Hayes bets on put options at $35,000, which means he expects Bitcoin to drop below that level and then recover. However, this also exposes him to a significant loss if Bitcoin does not follow his prediction and instead continues to rise or remains stable. This shows that his forecast is more of a personal gamble than a rational analysis.
- Hayes calls himself "the new Cramer", which implies that he is a visionary leader in the crypto market, similar to how Jim Cramer is in the traditional financial markets. However, this also suggests that he is dismissive of other opinions and perspectives, and believes that his own views are superior and more accurate. This indicates a lack of humility and openness to learning from others.
- Hayes claims that Bitcoin and crypto are the last freely traded markets globally, and that any changes in dollar liquidity will be reflected in these markets first. However, this is not necessarily true, as there may be other markets that are more sensitive or responsive to changes in currency conditions, such as commodities, foreign exchange, derivatives, etc. This statement also reflects a bias towards Bitcoin and crypto, and assumes that they have a unique and dominant role in the global financial system.
- Hayes predicts a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000, but does not specify what he means by "local". Does he mean in terms of geography, currency, time frame, or something else? This vagueness makes his prediction less credible and more ambiguous. It also leaves room for different interpretations and speculations, which may create confusion and uncertainty among investors and traders.