Some big people with lots of money (called whales) are betting that a company called Freeport-McMoRan will not do well. They buy things called options, which let them control how much they can make or lose depending on the company's future. Most of these big people think the company will go down in price from $33 to $47 per share. Read from source...
1. The title is misleading and sensationalized: "Market Whales" implies that the large investors are sharks or predators in the market, which creates a negative connotation and bias towards them. A more neutral title could be "Large Investors' Options Trades on FCX".
2. The use of percentages to describe the bullish vs bearish stance is confusing and misleading: 18% of investors opened trades with bullish expectations, but this does not mean that only 18% of the total market capitalization or value is involved in these trades. A more accurate way to express this would be "Out of the observed trades, X% were bearish and Y% were bullish".
3. The projection of price targets based on options history is not reliable: options are derivatives that depend on many factors, such as volatility, time, supply and demand, etc. Therefore, projecting a specific price range from historical data alone is flawed and potentially misleading for readers who may rely on this information to make investment decisions.
4. The analysis of volume and open interest does not account for the directionality of the trades: since there are more bearish than bullish trades, it would be more relevant to examine how the large players are distributing their bets between puts and calls, rather than focusing on a price range that may or may not reflect their actual expectations. For example, if most of the puts are at the lower end of the range and most of the calls are at the higher end, it could indicate that the whales are expecting a large move in either direction, but with different probabilities or risks.
1. Bullish scenario:
- Buy FCX shares at market price or below $35.0 (current support level) - this would allow you to benefit from a potential upside if the price rises above $47.0, which is the upper range of the projected price window and the highest open interest.
- Set a stop-loss order at $32.9 or lower, depending on the market conditions and your risk tolerance. This would limit your losses in case the price declines further.
- Consider selling covered calls with a strike price around $40.0 or slightly above, which would generate income and reduce your cost basis if exercised. You can also use a call spread strategy by selling a higher strike call option and buying a lower strike call option at the same expiration date, to increase your potential profit while maintaining a defined risk.
- Monitor the news and developments related to FCX and its industry, as well as the overall market trends and sentiment, to adjust your strategy accordingly. You can also use technical analysis tools to identify key levels of support and resistance, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands, etc.
2. Bearish scenario:
- Sell FCX shares short at or above $47.0 (current resistance level) - this would allow you to profit from a potential downside if the price drops below $33.0, which is the lower range of the projected price window and the highest open interest.
- Set a stop-loss order at $52.9 or higher, depending on the market conditions and your risk tolerance. This would limit your losses in case the price rises further.
- Consider buying protected puts with a strike price around $35.0 or slightly below, which would give you the right to sell FCX shares at that price if they decline significantly. You can also use a put spread strategy by buying a lower strike put option and selling a higher strike put option at the same expiration date, to reduce your cost and increase your potential profit while maintaining a defined risk.
- Monitor the news and developments related to FCX and its industry, as well as the overall market trends and sentiment, to adjust your strategy accordingly. You can also use technical analysis tools to identify key levels of support and resistance, such as moving averages, RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc.