A man who knows a lot about cars and money thinks Tesla is only worth $135 if we only look at how many electric cars they make. He also says that to reach that price, Tesla would have to sell lots and lots of cars and make more money than other car companies. But he still thinks Tesla can grow because they are doing well with something called Tesla Energy, which helps store and use power from the sun or wind. This part of Tesla's business will become more important in the future. Read from source...

- The analyst seems to be overly pessimistic about Tesla's automotive segment valuation and volume potential, while being too optimistic about other segments like Tesla Energy. This is a classic case of confirmation bias, where he only focuses on the negative aspects of one segment and the positive aspects of another, ignoring the possibility that both could have significant upside or downside.
- The analyst's assumption that Tesla should be selling over 15 million vehicles per year and generating mid-teens EBIT margin to justify a $135 valuation for its automotive segment is arbitrary and unrealistic. He does not provide any evidence or rationale for these numbers, nor does he consider the competitive landscape, technological advancements, customer preferences, regulatory environment, etc. that could affect Tesla's market share and profitability.
- The analyst's comparison of Tesla's battery revenue to other companies like EVgo or ChargePoint is misleading and irrelevant. These are not direct competitors of Tesla, as they offer different services and business models. Tesla's battery revenue comes from selling energy storage systems, solar panels, and grid-scale batteries, while these companies mainly provide charging infrastructure and services for electric vehicles. Therefore, it does not make sense to compare their revenues or market shares in this context.
- The analyst's claim that Tesla Energy will account for 12% of company revenue by 2025 is based on a very aggressive growth rate and market share assumption. He expects Tesla Energy to grow from $3 billion in 2020 to $40 billion in 2025, which implies a compound annual growth rate of over 60%. This is highly unlikely, considering the current market size, competition, and regulatory hurdles for energy storage and solar industries. Moreover, he assumes that Tesla will capture 8% of the global energy storage market and 3% of the global solar market by 2025, which is very ambitious given the company's limited experience and resources in these segments compared to established players like LG Chem, Sonnen, or Sunrun.
- The analyst does not provide any quantitative analysis or forecast for Tesla's other business segments, such as autonomous driving software, insurance, FSD subscription, full self-driving feature, robotaxis, etc. These are the segments that have the most potential to disrupt and transform the transportation industry in the long term, but also face the most uncertainty and challenges in terms of technology, regulation, consumer acceptance, and competition. Therefore, it is important