Some rich people think the price of Union Pacific, a big company that moves trains and trucks, will go down in the next few months. So they bought something called options to make money if that happens. Options are like bets on how much a stock will change in value. The article says this is important because it might mean those rich people know something others don't about what will happen with Union Pacific. Read from source...
- The title is misleading and sensationalized. It implies that smart money is betting big against UNP, but the article actually shows that only 25% of the sentiment is bullish, while 75% is bearish. This creates a false impression that there is a strong consensus among professional investors to short UNP options.
- The article relies on publicly available options history from Benzinga, which may not be accurate or representative of the whole market. There could be many factors influencing these trades that are not mentioned in the article, such as hedging strategies, portfolio diversification, or macroeconomic events.
- The article does not provide any evidence or analysis to support its claim that "somebody knows something is about to happen". This is a vague and speculative statement that lacks credibility and logical reasoning. It also appeals to the emotions of retail traders by creating fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
- The article does not disclose any potential conflicts of interest or bias from Benzinga or its partners. For example, Benzinga Pro is a paid service that offers real-time options trades alerts, which could incentivize the company to promote volatility and activity in the market for more subscribers and revenue.
- The article ends with an advertisement for Benzinga's services, which is irrelevant and unethical. It does not contribute any value or information to the readers, but rather tries to manipulate them into signing up for a paid service by using fear tactics and false promises of better investing outcomes.
Given the high stakes involved, I would advise against following the bearish sentiment of these large investors without doing proper due diligence. However, if you are interested in hedging your portfolio or taking a speculative position, here are some possible options strategies based on the information from the article:
- Buy UNP Jan 2025 $230 calls at a premium of $18.76 and sell UNP Jan 2025 $270 calls at a premium of $9.04, for a net credit of $9.72 per contract. This creates a bull call spread with a breakeven price of $239.72, and a potential profit of up to $8.16 or 52% if UNP reaches $270 by January 2025 expiration.
- Buy UNP Jan 2025 $240 puts at a premium of $13.49 and sell UNP Jan 2025 $280 puts at a premium of $6.32, for a net debit of $7.17 per contract. This creates a bull put spread with a breakeven price of $246.83, and a potential profit of up to $9.13 or 59% if UNP falls below $240 by January 2025 expiration.
- Buy UNP Jan 2025 $250 calls at a premium of $8.26 and buy UNP Jan 2025 $270 calls at a premium of $9.04, for a net debit of $8.14 per contract. This creates a call spread with a breakeven price of $258.14, and a potential profit of up to $16.86 or 93% if UNP reaches $270 by January 2025 expiration.