Sure, let's imagine you're playing with your favorite blocks.
1. **System.80**: This is like a big tower you built with your blocks. It was so tall (went really high), but then it fell down (went low).
2. **Retested and rejected**: You tried to build that tall tower again, but this time, it didn't reach the same height as before. So, you made a new base for your blocks at 195.38.
3. **Fractal resistance broken**: If your friend helps you add more blocks on top of your tower (the price goes up), then you might be able to reach the tallest point you had before (previous highs).
4. **Bearish bat pattern**: Your friends say they won't help you build too high, and if you try to go higher than 204.84, they'll start taking blocks away (price goes down). This is like a warning not to go too high.
Now, Andre Cardoso is just telling us what might happen with some special coins that are traded between countries, like dollars from the U.S. and yen from Japan (USDJPY), or pounds from England and yen from Japan (GBPJPY).
He's saying:
- Maybe USDJPY will try to reach its tallest tower again if it breaks its current limit.
- GBPJPY might have a friend who says not to go too high, around 204.84.
- And he also talked about NZDJPY and CADJPY coins, which are just other special coins traded between different countries.
Just like you're watching out for your friends when playing with blocks, traders (people who buy and sell these special coins) need to watch out for patterns and limits too so they know how high or low the prices might go.
Read from source...
Based on the provided text, here's a critical analysis highlighting some of its aspects:
1. **Vagueness and Lack of Specificity**:
- The time frame for when the ranges were broken is not specified (e.g., "The range between resistance at...").
- There's no mention of specific Fibonacci levels without referring to them as just "%". Clarifying these points would provide more concrete information.
2. **Assumption of Breakout:**
- The article assumes that a breakout will occur once a range is broken, but it doesn't account for the possibility of false breaks or retests.
3. **Lack of Alternative Scenarios**:
- While potential upside targets are mentioned, there's no mention of possible downside targets if resistance levels hold or reassert themselves.
- The focus on upside surprises (e.g., bearish patterns "implying" increases) can give a biased perception of the market.
4. **Lack of Context**:
- The text discusses pairs like USDJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, and CADJPY but doesn't provide context for why these pairs are significant in the post-election scenario.
- It would be helpful to explain how U.S. elections might impact these currency pairs specifically.
5. **Inconsistent Use of Tenses**:
- The text switches between present tense ("is now testing resistance") and future tense ("If this occurs, we may anticipate..."), which can make it less clear what the current market situation is.
6. **Lack of Citation or Source for Forecasts**:
- While the article mentions "my projection" and "my forecast," there's no indication of why these specific levels, patterns, or Fibonacci retracement points were chosen.
7. **Promotional Tone**:
- The last paragraph encourages users to explore analyses on U.S. elections' impacts on forex markets, which can be seen as promoting the services offered by Forex Analytix and Benzinga.
Based on the article, here's a breakdown of the sentiment for each currency pair discussed:
1. **USD/JPY**:
- Bearish: The article discusses the possibility of a bearish deep crab pattern around 138.60 and a bearish bat pattern at 140.45.
- Bullish: It also mentions the potential retest of previous highs if resistance is broken.
2. **GBP/JPY**:
- Bearish: The formation of a bearish bat pattern is projected at 204.84, indicating a 2.5% increase above the most recent resistance.
- Bullish: There's a possibility to retest the previous highs of July 11th if the fractal resistance is broken.
3. **NZDJPY**:
- Bearish: A bearish bat pattern is projected at 97.18, indicating a 5.3% increase above the fractal resistance.
- Bullish: An attempt to test the July highs at 99.00 is anticipated if range resistance is broken.
4. **CAD/JPY**:
- Bearish: The formation of a bearish deep crab pattern around 112.96 and a bearish bat pattern projected at 116.90 are mentioned.
- Bullish: There's a possibility to retest previous highs if resistance is broken.
Overall, the article maintains a **neutral** sentiment as it discusses potential moves in both bullish and bearish directions for each currency pair. It acknowledges the volatility and uncertainty post-election, encouraging vigilance towards emerging patterns and resistance levels.
Based on the provided analysis, here are comprehensive investment recommendations along with potential risks for each of the mentioned currency pairs:
1. **USDJPY**
- *Recommendation*: Consider long positions if fractal resistance at 140.78 is confirmed broken.
- *Risks*:
- False breakout leading to a retest of support at 139.25.
- Potential bearish deep crab pattern formation around 142.60.
2. **GBPJPY**
- *Recommendation*: Monitor for potential long opportunities if fractal resistance is broken, with price targeting previous highs of July 11th at around 199.50.
- *Risks*:
- Formation of a bearish bat pattern around 204.84 could lead to a pullback and reversal.
- Breakouts may face resistance at the previous highs.
3. **NZDJPY**
- *Recommendation*: Watch for long opportunities if the range between 92.29 (resistance) and 90.05 (support) is broken, with price targeting July highs at 99.00.
- *Risks*:
- Bearish bat pattern around 97.18 could indicate a pullback after the breakout.
- False breakouts may lead to a retest of support at 90.05.
4. **CADJPY**
- *Recommendation*: Keep an eye on potential long positions if resistance between 110.72 and 108.96 is broken, targeting more substantial recovery.
- *Risks*:
- Potential formation of a bearish deep crab pattern around 112.96, leading to a reversal after the breakout.
- Breakouts may face significant resistance at previous highs (e.g., 112.09 and potential bearish bat pattern around 116.90).
**General Risks & Considerations**:
- Volatility in currency markets can be high, especially during geopolitical events like U.S. elections.
- Always use stop losses to manage risk effectively.
- Regularly review and adjust positions based on market developments and new data.
- Stay informed about relevant economic indicators, central bank decisions, and political developments that may impact these currency pairs.
Before making any investment decisions, consult with a licensed financial advisor or conduct thorough research to ensure you understand the associated risks and suitability of these strategies for your portfolio.