A big company called Eli Lilly and Co makes medicine. Some people who buy and sell parts of this company think it will not do well and its price will go down. Other people think the opposite and expect it to do well and make more money. They bought parts that let them profit if the company does well. The article talks about how many of these buying and selling happened recently, and what prices they think the company's stock might be in the future. Read from source...
1. The article is misleading by presenting a false balance between bullish and bearish investors. It does not provide any evidence or explanation for why 47% of the investors are bullish and 52% are bearish on Eli Lilly and Co's options. This is a classic example of confirmation bias, where the author cherry-picks data that supports their preferred narrative, without considering alternative explanations or counterevidence.
2. The article uses vague and ambiguous terms such as "major market movers" and "price band" to describe the options trading activity for Eli Lilly and Co. These terms do not convey any specific information or provide any actionable insights for readers who want to make informed decisions based on the article. Instead, they create a sense of uncertainty and confusion, which may lead to irrational investment choices.
3. The article focuses too much on the quantity (number of trades) rather than the quality (value or impact) of the options trading for Eli Lilly and Co. By only reporting the total amount of money involved in puts and calls, the author fails to capture the diversity and complexity of the options market. This may mislead readers into thinking that a high volume of trades necessarily indicates a high level of interest or liquidity, when in fact it may be due to other factors such as speculation, hedging, or arbitrage.
Possible recommendation 1: Buy LLY calls with a strike price of $105. Expiration date: June 18, 2021. The rationale behind this recommendation is that the call options have a relatively low implied volatility (37%) compared to the historical average (46%), which means that there is potential for a significant increase in the stock price. Additionally, the open interest for these calls is high ($5 million) and increasing, indicating that large institutional investors are betting on a bullish outcome for LLY. The estimated break-even point for this trade is $115.08 per share, which is within the projected price target range of $300.0 to $1180.0.
Risk: If the stock price does not rise above the strike price by the expiration date, the call options will expire worthless and result in a loss. This risk can be mitigated by setting a stop-loss order at a suitable level below the entry point or by purchasing a protective put option with a lower strike price. Alternatively, you could also sell covered calls against your long position to reduce the cost basis and generate income.
Possible recommendation 2: Sell LLY puts with a strike price of $135. Expiration date: June 18, 2021. The rationale behind this recommendation is that the put options have a relatively high implied volatility (46%) compared to the historical average (37%), which means that there is potential for a significant decline in the stock price. Additionally, the open interest for these puts is low ($0.5 million) and decreasing, indicating that retail investors are shorting LLY in anticipation of a bearish outcome. The estimated breakeven point for this trade is $147.62 per share, which is above the projected price target range of $300.0 to $1180.0.
Risk: If the stock price does not decline below the strike price by the expiration date, the put options will expire worthless and result in a loss. This risk can be mitigated by setting a stop-loss order at a suitable level above the entry point or by purchasing a protective call option with a higher strike price. Alternatively, you could also buy protected puts against your short position to reduce the exposure and limit the downside potential.