the big bank called Goldman Sachs thinks the U.S. economy is doing really well, so they lowered the chances of a recession, which is when the economy doesn't do so well, happening in the next year. They think good reports about jobs and people buying stuff will keep the economy strong. They also think the bank might lower some interest rates, which can help the economy by letting people borrow money more easily. But they are also a little worried about a report that's coming out soon about jobs, because if it's not so good, it could change their mind about how strong the economy is. Read from source...

In the article titled "Brighter Outlook: Goldman Sachs Optimistic On U. S. Economy, Cuts Recession Risk Down To 20%", the author has taken a positive outlook on the U.S. economy and the decision of Goldman Sachs to cut the recession risk down to 20%. However, the article lacks a comprehensive analysis of the risks and challenges that the U.S. economy is currently facing. Furthermore, the article shows a clear bias towards Goldman Sachs, without providing an objective assessment of their methodology and the limitations of their data. Additionally, the author has provided an emotional response to the news, rather than presenting a rational argument. The article's title, "Brighter Outlook", further highlights the emotional and optimistic tone of the article, rather than providing an objective analysis of the current economic situation in the U.S. Overall, the article lacks a critical perspective and presents a one-sided view of the U.S. economy and the decision of Goldman Sachs.

Based on the article, Goldman Sachs has displayed optimism towards the U.S. economy and reduced the recession risk down to 20%. This positive economic outlook could potentially lead to a further reduction in the recession probability to 15% with an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at their September policy meeting. The decrease in jobless claims and surge in retail sales indicate a robust consumer sector, which is crucial for the U.S. economy. However, the upcoming jobs report for August could still trigger a 50 basis point move if disappointing. Overall, the U.S. economy appears to be resilient amidst global economic uncertainties.