A group of experts called Viridian Capital Advisors made a chart to show how much money some companies make from selling products related to cannabis. They found that half of these companies might make less money in the next few months than they did before. This is surprising because usually, these companies make more money in the summer than in the winter. The experts think that maybe the people who buy these products are not spending as much money because of higher prices or other reasons. They also say that the people who write about these companies in the news might not have updated their predictions about how much money the companies will make in the future. They think that the companies might do better later in the year if they focus on selling in Ohio and other places where people are more interested in buying cannabis products. The experts keep track of these changes and help other people decide how to invest their money in these companies. Read from source...
- He pointed out that half of the companies on the chart have projected negative sequential growth in EBITDA for Q2, which is surprising because Q2 is generally a seasonally stronger quarter, and in the previous three years, an average of nearly 80% of the companies on the chart have had higher EBITDA in Q2 compared to Q1.
- He argued that analysts are projecting a 10.2% y/o/y EBITDA growth for Q2 and full-year 2024 EBITDA growth of 9.8% compared to 2023. However, 1st half of 2024 results, including the Q2 estimates, are 14.2% higher than the 1st half of 2023, implying that second-half growth will only be around 6.0%. He questioned whether analysts are expecting dramatic slowing or have they just not updated their 2024 estimates.
- He mentioned that anecdotally, IR spokesmen for several companies have spoken of tightening consumer spending, price declines in New Jersey and other markets, and a generally competitive retail environment.
- He concluded that while he doesn't challenge the idea of a consumer slowdown, he believes sell-side analysts are being slow to adjust earnings estimates upward, and the impact of Ohio in the second half seems underappreciated.
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Article's Content:
- The article discusses a chart showing the estimated growth rates of EBITDA for a number of cannabis companies.
- The author notes that half of the companies on the chart have projected negative sequential growth in EBITDA for Q2, which is surprising given that Q2 is usually a stronger quarter.
- The author also points out that analysts are projecting full-year 2024 EBITDA growth of 9.8% compared to 2023, but the first half of 2024 results are 14.2% higher than the first half of 2023, implying that second-half growth will be lower.
- The author wonders if analysts are expecting a dramatic slowdown, or if they have simply not updated their 2024 estimates.
- The author also mentions that several IR spokesmen have spoken of tightening consumer spending, price declines, and a competitive retail environment.
- The author concludes by saying that he does not challenge the idea of a consumer slowdown, but believes that sell-side analysts are being slow to adjust earnings estimates upward and that the impact of Ohio in the second half is underappreciated.
The text is a market update and analysis from a financial perspective. It does not provide specific recommendations or risks for individual investors. However, the text mentions that half of the companies on the chart have projected negative sequential growth in EBITDA for Q2 and that analysts are expecting a 10.2% y/o/y EBITDA growth for Q2 and full-year 2024 EBITDA growth of 9.8% compared to 2023. This information could be useful for investors who are interested in the cannabis industry and want to keep track of the performance and expectations of these companies. The text also mentions that the authors believe that sell-side analysts are being slow to adjust earnings estimates upward and that the impact of Ohio in the second half seems underappreciated. This information could be useful for investors who want to consider these factors in their investment decisions.