Alright, let's imagine you have a big house (the AI model) and some friends come over to play (the users).
1. **Your big house costs a lot to run**: Just like it costs money to heat, light, and maintain the house, running advanced AI models (like GPT-4) also costs money.
2. **Different friends pay different amounts for playing there**: Some of your friends might chip in $50 each to help with the house expenses, while others might pay $300 because they use more space or play longer. In this case, running ChatGPT Pro is like those friends paying $200 (and GPT-4 would be like them paying much more).
3. **More friends come over**: If more and more people start coming to your house to play (adoption), then even though it costs a lot to run the house, you can make more money because there are more friends helping pay for the expenses.
4. **The most important thing right now is to count how many new friends are coming over**: This is what the investors want to do – they want to see if lots of people start using AI models like GPT-4 so that the company can make more money and build even bigger houses (improve their AI infrastructure).
So, in simple terms, running advanced AI models costs a lot, but if enough people use them, the company can expand its services and make everyone happy – including the investors!
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Based on the provided text, here are some aspects that could be critiqued or seen as inconsistent, biased, or emotionally driven:
1. **Sentiment**: The analyst, Pierre Ferragu, is quite bullish about AI infrastructure and OpenAI's prospects. While optimism can drive innovation, very positive views may also indicate confirmation bias, overlooking potential challenges or risks.
2. **Comparisons**: He mentions that running GPT-4 is 30 times more expensive than ChatGPT Pro but priced only 10x higher. This comparison might suggest that the price increase is unjustified, but it doesn't provide a clear explanation of why this is the case. Different AI models can have different costs due to various factors (e.g., complexity, size, computational demands).
3. **Adoption as key metric**: Ferragu emphasizes monitoring adoption as the most important task for investors. While user base growth is undoubtedly crucial for revenue and expansion, it's not the sole metric to consider. Other aspects like retention rates, engagement metrics, and financial sustainability are also essential.
4. **OpenAI vs. xAI**: The mention of Elon Musk's xAI and Altman's acknowledgment of a competitive race might show partiality towards OpenAI since Ferragu works for New Street Research and is an investor in Grok, which has ties with OpenAI. This could potentially introduce bias into his analysis.
5. **No mention of risks or challenges**: While Ferragu discusses growth potential, he doesn't delve into the possible risks, roadblocks, or regulatory concerns that AI companies might face. A balanced view should consider both the opportunities and challenges ahead for AI infrastructure.
6. **Hyperbolic language**: Phrases like "hyper bull case" and "infra hyper growth" imply very optimistic expectations, which could be seen as emotionally driven rather than fact-based.
These critiques don't refute Ferragu's overall argument about the potential of AI infrastructure or OpenAI, but they do highlight the importance of considering multiple perspectives and a range of metrics when analyzing such investments.
The article is positively tilted towards AI infrastructure and the potential growth of OpenAI. Here are a few reasons:
1. **Bullish Outlook on AI Infrastructure**: The author quotes Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research who is bullish about the future of AI infrastructure driven by growing user adoption.
2. **Growth Potential**: OpenAI's ChatGPT Pro, priced at $200/month, is 30 times more expensive to run but if user take rate is good, it could drive user growth and higher average revenue per user, leading to rapid expansion of AI infrastructure.
3. **New Features and Models**: The "12 Days of OpenAI" event includes a series of new features and models like ChatGPT Pro and Sora (AI video generator), indicating ongoing innovation from the company.
4. **Ambitious Goals**: OpenAI's strategic goal to reach 1 billion users by 2025 shows its ambition and expectation for growth in usage and value.
5. **Favorable Funding**: OpenAI secured over $6 billion in funding at a valuation of $157 billion, indicating investor confidence in the company.