A man took a picture of the sun rising over a lake. The picture shows the sun peeking through the clouds, casting a golden glow on the water. The photo is a reminder that even when things seem dark and difficult, there is always hope and beauty to be found. Read from source...
1. The author's main argument is that the carry trade unwind is not over, and that there is a widespread mistaken belief among less informed investors that the carry trade unwind is over.
2. The author's source of information is The Arora Report, which claims to have accurate calls in the past, but does not provide any evidence or verification for these claims.
3. The author's analysis seems to be based on technical indicators, such as support/resistance zones, volume, and money flows, but does not explain how these indicators are related to the carry trade unwind or the broader market conditions.
4. The author's narrative is heavily biased towards the momo crowd and the smart money, and does not consider other possible factors or scenarios that could affect the market.
5. The author's tone is emotional and dismissive, using words like "widespread mistaken belief", "less informed investors", and "only those funds that were overstretched were forced to unwind".
6. The author's conclusion is based on a hypothetical scenario, where the Fed cuts interest rates by 75 bps in an emergency meeting, which is unlikely to happen.
7. The author's protection band strategy is vague and unclear, and does not address the risks and benefits of holding cash or hedging.
8. The author's criticism of the traditional 60/40 portfolio is based on a single factor, inflation, and does not take into account the diversification benefits of bonds.
9. The author's overall message is negative and bearish, and does not provide any constructive or actionable advice for investors.
- Hold good, very long term positions
- Consider continuing to hold good, very long term positions
- Consider continuing to hold good, very long term positions