Someone wrote an article about Tesla, a company that makes electric cars. The writer is worried because Tesla made fewer cars than they said they would. This means people might not want to buy as many Tesla cars as before. Also, the people who run Tesla are making too many cars and wasting money. The person who wrote the article used to like Tesla, but now he doesn't because of these problems. He is waiting for some good news to make him change his mind again. Read from source...
- The author seems to be overly pessimistic about Tesla's prospects and ignores the potential of FSD and other innovations.
- The author compares EPS versus the Street without considering the different accounting methods and assumptions that may affect the comparability of the metrics.
- The author uses a narrow time frame of one quarter to judge Tesla's performance and fails to acknowledge the long-term trends and opportunities for growth in the EV market.
- Tesla's stock price is highly sensitive to its delivery numbers, production levels, and FSD regulatory approval status.
- The recent delivery print showed a significant gap between production and deliveries, indicating possible overproduction and underdemand.
- Management should slow down manufacturing production to match the slowdown in demand and improve margins.
- As long as AI's EPS estimates are way below the Street's and FSD is not near getting regulatory approval for higher levels of autonomy, Tesla stock faces significant risks.
- AI's EPS versus the Street has been one of the best predictors of Tesla's stock price over the years.
- Potential data points that can turn AI from bearish to bullish are: a) improved delivery numbers and production levels, b) FSD regulatory approval for higher levels of autonomy, c) better than expected EPS results.