People are worried that the US owes too much money and it might cause problems when choosing a new president. This could make some investments, like bonds, less attractive even though they usually do well during uncertain times. Read from source...
- The title is misleading as it implies that investors are fearful of the debt, while the article suggests they are more concerned about the political uncertainty and its impact on bond rallies.
- The article uses vague terms such as "fiscal concerns" and "reducing deficit spending" without providing any concrete data or evidence to support them. It also relies on opinions from unnamed sources, which weakens its credibility.
- The article fails to acknowledge the potential benefits of a growing debt, such as lower interest rates, increased government spending, and stimulus packages that could boost economic growth and markets.
- The article ignores other factors that could influence bond rallies, such as inflation expectations, global trade tensions, and central bank policies. It also does not consider the historical performance of bond ETFs in similar situations or their diversification benefits.
- The article ends with a mention of unrelated topics, such as disinflation hopes, Treasury yields, and Fed rate cuts, without explaining how they are connected to the main thesis. It also uses outdated data (May 16) that could have changed significantly since then.
1. The U.S. national debt is projected to reach $28.7 trillion by 2030, which could overshadow any potential bond rally ahead of the presidential elections in November. (Source: https://www.pgpf.org/budget-basics/how-much-debt)
2. The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may not be enough to counteract the negative effects of rising debt levels on bond prices and yield curves. (Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-minutes-show-growing-support-for-a-rate-cut-2019-05-22)
3. Both presidential candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, have not made reducing deficit spending a priority, which could further increase the fiscal concerns in the market. (Source: https://www.benzinga.com/news/20)