Some rich people think that a big oil company called BP will do well in the future, so they are buying options to bet on it. They are spending a lot of money on these options. This could mean something important is going to happen with BP soon. Read from source...
- The title is misleading and sensationalized, implying that there is some unusual or suspicious activity happening with BP options. However, the article does not provide any evidence or explanation for why this activity is unusual or what it means for BP's performance or future prospects.
- The article relies heavily on anecdotal and subjective observations, such as "we noticed this today", "when something this big happens", "it often means somebody knows something is about to happen". These statements are vague, unsubstantiated, and prone to speculation and confirmation bias.
- The article does not provide any context or background information on BP's current situation, industry trends, market conditions, or competitive landscape. This makes it difficult for readers to assess the relevance and significance of the options activity mentioned in the article.
- The article does not cite any credible sources or data to support its claims or arguments. It mentions "publicly available options history" but does not specify where or how this information is obtained, verified, or updated. It also quotes Benzinga's options scanner without explaining what it is, how it works, or how reliable it is as a source of information.
- The article ends with a predicted price range for BP based on "trading volumes and open interest". However, this analysis is superficial and ignores other factors that may affect the stock's valuation, such as earnings, dividends, growth, risk, etc. It also does not explain how it derived the predicted price range or what criteria or assumptions it used to calculate it.
Possible recommendations:
- Buy BP calls with a strike price between $25.0 and $35.0, expiring in the next month to three months, as these are likely to increase significantly in value if the stock rises above the current price of around $28.0.
- Sell BP puts with a strike price between $20.0 and $30.0, expiring in the same time frame, as these can generate income and reduce the cost basis of the call position if the stock falls below the current price.
- Set a stop loss at around $25.0 for both the calls and the puts, to limit the potential losses in case of a sudden market downturn or unexpected negative news about BP.
Risks:
Possible risks:
- The stock may not move as anticipated, either up or down, due to various factors such as market volatility, geopolitical events, oil prices, earnings surprises, etc., which can affect the value of the options and the overall investment strategy.
- The big-money traders may be wrong or misleading about their intentions, which can result in a sudden change of direction for the stock price, either positive or negative, depending on the news or events that trigger such changes.
- The options scanner may not capture all the relevant trades, especially those done privately or through alternative platforms, which can skew the data and the analysis of the options activity.